Should I buy 2 tickets to one raffle, or 1 ticket each for 2 different raffles to have better chance to win?
Hi, I’ve found some answers while searching the internet to this question, but they’ve been too mathematical or not exactly related to this specific question.
I have the opportunity to buy tickets in 2 different raffles for a car I’d love to have. The tickets are expensive, so I want to only buy 2 tickets.
The raffles each will only sell a maximum of 1,000 tickets. Both still have tickets for sale, but I don’t know how many they have sold – just less than 1,000.
Because of the time frame, both raffles will probably not meet their goal of 1,000 tickets sold – so each raffle
Would I have a better chance of winning one of these raffles if I either 1) bought 1 ticket to each; or 2) bought 2 tickets for one.
I only want to buy 2 tickets total.
Thanks to you math heads out there – please make it simple – at least your conclusion. 
Tags: better, chance, different, each, Raffle, Raffles., Should, Ticket, Tickets
March 15th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
You would have a better chance if you bought two tickets in the raffle with the lower amount of tickets. But, you can’t know which one that is. Putting one in each (middle probability of win) allows you to be sure you have at least one in the raffle with the smaller amount of tickets, but if you put both of them in one you have a 50/50 chance of getting them in the smaller amount of tickets (better probability of win) but you risk getting in the large amount of tickets (worse probability of win).
March 15th, 2010 at 2:40 pm
Just buy 1 for each raffle.As it only takes 1 ticket to win anyway,and your chance is just as good as everybody else’s.Besides if you bought 2 tickets for only 1 raffle and lost you wouldn’t have a chance in the other raffle because you didn’t play.I hope you win the car Good luck !!!!!!
March 15th, 2010 at 3:30 pm
You’d have a higher chance to win if you bought 2 tickets in just one raffle…. example
2 raffles… each only are selling 5 tickets
if you bought 2 tickets for 1 raffle… you’d have a 2/5th’s chance of winning the one raffle…. 40%
if you bought 1 ticket in both raffles… you’d have a 2/10 chance of winning just one raffle…. 20%
it’s like being asked to roll a 4 on a 6 sided dice… would you rather roll twice, or would you rather make it hard on yourself and be required to roll a 4 not once but twice in a row.
March 15th, 2010 at 3:43 pm
Let’s pretend each raffle had 100 tickets. If you bought a ticket in each one, your chances of winning a car would be:
there are four cases – you lose 1 and 2, you win each, win 1, lose 2 or win 1 and 2.
P(1 and 2) = 1/100 * 1/00 = 1/10,000 = a
P (1 not 2) = 1/100 * 99/100 = 99/10,000 = b
P (2 not one) = 99/10000 = b
P(not 1 not 2) = 1-(2b) = 1 – 198/10000 = 98.02%
P(win one car) = 1.98 %
P(win 2 cars) = 1/10000 = .01% buts its twice as good as winning 1 car
If you buy two tickets in one lottery P(win) = 2/100 = 2% So buying both tickets in one lottery is marginally better than one ticket in each to win at least one car but gives a possibility of two car win which balances out the slightly lower probability of winning a car. If you have no use for a second car, buy both tickets in one lottery, if you do have a use ofr a second car then the impact is essentially identical.
Don’t know how to factor the different ticket numbers but expect they would wash out except, of course, if you can tell, then buy two tickets in the lowest selling lottery.
Later edit: Actually Ben has it wrong but I like his smaller number, makes it more clear.
Lottery with 5 tickets. If you buy two tickets in that lottery, you have a 40% chance of winning. If you bought one ticket in two lotteries, the odds of losing both would be 4/5 * 4/5 = 16/25. So you would have a 9/25% chance of winning at least one which is 36% which, as you can see is less than the percentage of winning if youbought into the same lottery. How this all balances out is that you have a 1/5 * 1/5 chance of winning both which is 4%.
Conslusion, best chance of winning something bet on the same lottery, best return on investment is to buy a ticket in each.
March 15th, 2010 at 4:11 pm
Two tickets to one raffle.